Resources report points to sliding revenue

Earnings from Australia’s resources and energy exports are estimated to have declined by 10 per cent to $417 billion in 2023–24, down from a record $466 billion the previous year. And earnings are expected top drop further to about $356 billion by 2025–26, according to the latest Resources and energy quarterly report from the Office of the Chief Economist. Drivers will include a bottoming out in bulk commodity prices and a lift in the value of the Australian dollar against the US dollar. Opposition resources spokeswoman Senator Susan McDonald said the report highlighted the cyclical nature of the resources industry, and the need for continued investment across resources and energy commodities. “The report shows continued growth for both coking and thermal coal in the next few years, with Australian exports rising from 2023-24 to 2025-26, and notably, exploration expenditure for coking coal has had a 27 per cent increase year-on-year," she said. “LNG demand is set to remain steady as international prices ease, with global demand continuing to remain strong in the coming years." Senator McDonald said uranium exports were set to deliver $1.3 billion in earnings in 2023-24, rising to $1.7 billion in 2025-26. Yet there was an unrealised opportunity to capitalise on booming uranium prices thanks to ideological Labor-led prohibitions on uranium mining and exploration. "Despite growing demand for uranium, particularly as countries look to diversify their supply chain options, there is a risk that Australia misses out on this opportunity,” she said. Minister for Resources and Northern Australia Madeleine King said the latest report showed that the resources industry remained the bedrock of the nation's economy and economic wellbeing. “Our iron ore and LNG exports also continue to support the energy security of our major trading partners," she said. “Importantly, we are seeing strong demand for the critical minerals and strategic materials needed for low-emissions technologies, including lithium, nickel, copper and aluminium. “The forecasts underscore the need to support growth in our emerging critical minerals sector, which the Albanese Government will deliver through a Production Tax Credit for critical minerals.” Iron ore remains Australia’s top commodity export. The June 2024 REQ forecasts lower prices over the next two years, although volumes are forecast to increase by 2.3 per cent a year. Exports are forecast to earn $138 billion in 2023–24, $114 billion in 2024–25 and $102 billion in 2025–26. Australia’s combined thermal and metallurgical coal export earnings are forecast to fall from $90 billion in 2023–24 to $70 billion by 2025–26 due to global prices easing from the 2022 energy price spike. LNG export revenues are forecast to decline from $69 billion to $59 billion within the same timeframe. Australia’s copper export earnings are forecast to rise from $12 billion in 2023–24 to $17 billion in 2025–26 due to higher prices as a result of an improved manufacturing outlook in China and a ban on Russian metals on the London Metals Exchange and COMEX commodity exchange. Gold exports are expected to earn a record $33 billion in 2023–24, easing to around $31 billion in 2025–26. Gold prices have risen in 2024 on the back of strong demand from investors and central banks, supported by the prospect of lower global interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and worries over China’s property market.

Resources report points to sliding revenue

Industry Queensland

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