Latest energy roadmap calls for urgent investment

The Australian Energy Market Operator has released a roadmap for the energy transition, laying out the urgent need for investment to keep the lights on as coal-fired power plants are phased out. The AEMO's updated analysis shows that Australia's coal power stations are likely to close earlier than planned, with a forecast that 100 per cent of the nation's coal generation capacity will be retired by 2038. Its Draft 2024 Integrated System Plan (ISP shows the need for almost 10,000 km of transmission and a seven-fold increase in large-scale wind and solar generation by 2050. The ISP is intended to present an optimal development path of generation, storage and transmission investments needed to meet the energy needs of homes and businesses as Australia transitions to a net-zero economy by 2050. In the past 18 months, AEMO has collaborated with more than 1,300 stakeholders, produced 60 presentations and reports, and considered more than 110 submissions from industry, consumer and community representatives and governments to produce the latest plan for the National Electricity Market (NEM). AEMO chief executive officer Daniel Westerman said the plan highlighted the urgency for investment to ensure that Australians can continue to have access to safe, reliable and affordable energy. “AEMO has worked closely with industry, governments and consumer representatives to develop this plan in the interests of energy consumers,” Mr Westerman said. “The plan maps out urgent investment so that homes and businesses continue to access reliable and affordable electricity, both in the coming decade when 90 per cent of coal generation is expected to retire, and beyond to 2050. “As with previous reports, this plan shows that the lowest-cost pathway for secure and reliable electricity is from renewable energy, connected by transmission, supported by batteries and pumped hydro, and backed up by gas-powered generation.” To identify the optimal development path to 2050, AEMO used Australia’s most comprehensive set of power system and market models to assess the benefits and risks of more than 1000 potential pathways, Mr Westerman said. “Delivering the transmission projects identified in this plan is expected to avoid $17 billion in additional costs to consumers if those projects were not delivered,” he said. To deliver this lowest cost pathway for secure and reliable energy, this plan calls for investment that would: Add close to 10,000 km of new and upgraded transmission by 2050, as highlighted in previous plans, with around a quarter underway and half to be delivered in the next decade. Triple grid-scale variable renewable generation by 2030 (57 GW) and increase it seven-fold by 2050 (126 GW). Add almost four times the firming capacity from dispatchable storage, hydro and gas-powered generation by 2050 (74 GW). Support a four-fold increase in rooftop solar capacity by 2050 (72 GW), capable of providing additional benefits to consumers if coordinated and responsive to market and operational signals. “Our updated analysis shows that Australia's coal power stations are likely to close earlier than planned, and Australians are electrifying their homes and businesses at a faster rate,” Mr Westerman said. “In the next decade, this plan shows the need for 5000 km of transmission, both new projects and those underway, triple renewable generation and double dispatchable storage, hydro and gas-powered generation." This grid-scale investment also considers growth and value from rooftop solar, batteries and electric vehicles in supporting energy reliability and the secure operation of the power system. “While progress is being made, the transition is urgent and faces significant risks if market and policy settings, social licence and supply chain issues are not addressed,” Mr Westerman said. With the release of the Draft 2024 ISP, all stakeholders are invited to participate in upcoming consultations, including public forums, and provide written submissions before February 16, 2024. AEMO plans to finalise the 2024 ISP by June 28, 2024.

Latest energy roadmap calls for urgent investment

Industry Queensland

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