Whitehaven Coal’s FY26 results were served up with a reminder of forecasts for widening structural shortfalls in global coal supply.

Chief executive officer and managing director Paul Flynn highlighted the 162 million-tonne shortfall projected out to 2050 for metallurgical coal and 118 million tonnes for thermal coal.

“No surprise here. Approval timelines are blowing out and supply response hasn’t been meaningful at all despite the fact we’ve been through periods of decent pricing,” he said.

“And underlying demand just continues to truck along, which is very positive for us and positive for anybody who’s obviously got productive assets on foot already.”

Whitehaven produced 40.3 million tonnes of coal last financial year, almost evenly split between its New South Wales operations (20.2 million tonnes) and Queensland’s Daunia and Blackwater mines (20.1 million tonnes).

The company’s underlying EBITDA for the year was $1.25 billion. Net profit after tax dropped 41 per cent from $649 million to $385 million.

Mr Flynn described the company’s FY26 results as robust against a backdrop of cyclical price weakness and foreign exchange headwinds.

“We recovered strongly from significant wet weather in Queensland in the March quarter and effectively managed higher diesel costs and supply uncertainty in the second half,” he said.

“During FY26, we refinanced our debt, which diversified funding sources, extended our maturity profile and lowered our cost of debt significantly. This further strengthens Whitehaven’s capital structure and balance sheet.

“Whitehaven will return up to $159 million of capital to shareholders in respect of FY26, including a fully franked final dividend of 6 cents per share to take the full-year dividend to 10 cents, together with an equivalent amount of capital returned through Whitehaven’s on-market share buy-back program.

“April 2027 marks the completion of the three-year deferred and contingent payment arrangements for the acquisition (of Daunia and Blackwater mines) from BMA.

“With only a final $US100 million deferred payment and the last contingent payment remaining, the acquired assets will be unencumbered by acquisition-related payments and all cash flows will then be retained by Whitehaven.”

The company heads into FY27 with new rail contracts in NSW and Queensland that are set to deliver improved pricing outcomes.

It said cost reduction initiatives rolled out in FY25 and FY26, together with further cost improvement programs in FY27, would help to offset inflationary pressures and higher diesel costs.

Metallurgical coal prices have strengthened, with PLV HCC (premium low volatile hard coking coal) trading around $US215-235/t at the start of FY27 compared to about $US180-190/t at the start of FY26.

Thermal coal prices have also improved, with gC NEWC (globalCOAL Newcastle Index) averaging about $US130/t in July 2026 compared with $US110/t in July 2025.