Earnings from copper exports are expected to grow to $13billion this financial year.

The Resources and Energy Quarterly report says the copper price has been undermined by the slower than expected recovery in Chinese economic growth combined with weak construction activity in western countries.

Consumption growth is expected to be led by India the report says.

“India and the ASEAN nations are expected to make strong contributions to copper demand over the outlook period,” the report said. 

“Consumption in India is set to benefit from key demographic factors — population growth, as well as higher copper intensity per capita, driven by higher urbanisation and living standards. 

“Indian copper consumption is expected to increase by 13 percent a year on average over the outlook period, and may overtake Japan as Asia’s second largest copper market (after China) by 2025. 

“In the March quarter 2023, Indian copper consumption was 27 percent higher than in the March quarter 2022.” 

EVs more popular

The uptake of electric vehicles especially in Europe is expected to make its mark this year as COVID restricted supply chains relax, government stimulus comes into play and consumer sentiment swings further in favour of copper-intensive EVs.

There were an additional 400,000 car registrations in the EU in the March quarter which was up on the 12 months prior but less than 2019 levels.

Overall, copper consumption is expected to grow by 2.8 percent in 2024 and by 3.5 percent in 2025, where it is forecast to reach 28 Mt, supported by growing demand from the power and EV sectors. 

Over the June quarter 2023, prices are estimated to have averaged US$8,300 a tonne, down from US$8,900 in the previous quarter. Across the whole year, the LME spot price is forecast to average US$8,600 a tonne. 

In Australian dollar terms, the copper price for 2022–23 is estimated to be 7.7 percent lower compared to the previous financial year. Volumes are expected to grow and are expected to return earnings of around $13billion.